Reasons to be cheerful: SAF Investor London 2025

opinion

by Fayaz Hussain

June 9, 2025

On the whole it was a cheery bunch. Some 78% of SAF Investor London attendees last week were optimistic about the SAF market for 2025.

But there is more to be done. Almost half (48% to be exact) of the audience believes the industry needs more demand signals to get projects closed. IAG was awarded the “Offtaker of the year” award at our annual awards ceremony to encourage others.

In a room of SAF believers, less than half admitted to using book and claim. Airbus, which showcased its Airbus Book & Claim Demonstrator (ABCD), is hoping to raise this. Considering that this was just an idea a year ago, usage is definitely trending in the right direction.

Alex Harrison, Akin, highlighted what financiers are looking for in offtakes. This includes provisions for price risk, volume risk, duration and location.

Government support helps, but Geraldine Pic-Paris of ATOBA Energy warned that mandates and subsidies are “not enough to see a difference”. The investment community needs additional mechanisms – particularly long-term offtake agreements with creditworthy buyers – to justify the capital commitments required.

Alastair Blanshard, ICF told attendees that predicted demand levels are expected to grow from about 1m tonnes of neat SAF in 2025 to 16m tonnes in 2030, with the mandated areas of the UK and the EU making up 10m tonnes of that and the US and China expected to expand their demand levels as well.

Gene Gebolys, CEO, World Energy also pointed out how critical the demand piece is as policy stability in the US can only come in four-year terms, so allowing market dynamics to provide certainty is vital as the World Energy team continue to work on their expansion at the Paramount facility and their second project in Texas.

Thank you to everyone who attended SAF Investor London last week.