PA Consulting Cacophony to Symphony report shows SAF needs to sing from the same hymn sheet
Beethoven’s fifth symphony is one of the best known pieces of classical music. Most people recognise it from the opening movement. But music historians say it is most significant because it signalled the transition from the classical to romantic period.
The recent Cacophony to Symphony report published by PA Consulting describes how the Sustainable Aviation Fuel industry needs to move from an orchestra playing differing tunes to one reading from the same sheet music.
“Really the hope was to join some dots and bring some insights that, for example, somebody who’s specialised in producing SAF might not have thought about as to what they could potentially be doing,” Kata Cserep, global aviation lead, PA Consulting tells SAF Investor. “With respect to either their financing or their commercial negotiations or their logistics and so on. So, joining those different pieces together is really the aim of this report.”
Insight came from a 600-industry leader survey involving producers, investors, airlines, airports and policymakers from across the globe.
“There is misalignment and fragmentation across those different stakeholders in how they think about SAF adoption,” says Salem Esber, partner and energy industry advisor at PA Consulting. “It creates an obstacle to overcoming the higher cost PA [of SAF].”
One good indicator for the industry is that investors are the most optimistic of stakeholders, with 44% optimistic about widespread SAF adoption by 2030. They are actively looking for places to deploy capital, create something valuable and help drive progress, so their optimism is indicative of the potential of SAF, Esber says.
Just a third of producers are optimistic, and they also had the highest fuel price predictions for 2030 estimating SAF will be 148% the cost of jet fuel by 2030. This speaks to the challenges ahead.
A key takeaway is that policy makers and governments are blamed as being blockers to industry progression. Where markets are being created, governmental support is critical to scaling an industry wide ecosystem, Cserep tells us.
SAF is not a problem that can be solved by any one industry segment.
“It can really be quite overwhelming and sometimes quite lonely to be working in this space. But if you’re able to, lift your head up, look outside, reach outside of the particular niche you’re working in,” says Cserep.
An orchestra never all plays the same notes, but collectively each musician contributes to the same symphony. Let us hope that the 2025 is the SAF industry equivalent to Beethoven’s fifth and is moving from fragmentation through to a collaborative ecosystem.
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