Neste revises 2024 renewable products guidance

Finnish refiner Neste revised its 2024 guidance for renewable products citing significant decline in diesel prices and relatively unchanged feedstock prices during the third quarter.

This is the third time that the company has revised its 2024 renewable product guidance amid declining diesel prices and higher costs. The company sells nearly 50% of its renewable products in the North America market where diesel prices have nosedived amid fears of a supply glut.

“Renewable products’ total sales volume is expected to increase from 2023 and to reach approximately 3.9 Mt (+/- 5%) in 2024, out of which SAF sales volume is expected to be 0.35–0.55 Mton. Renewable products’ full-year 2024 average comparable sales margin is expected to be in the range of $360–480/ton,” said the company in its guidance announcement.

Earlier in its second quarter financial results announcement, the company said it expects full-year average margins from renewable products’ in 2024 to be in the range of $480–580/ton (revised down from initial guidance of $480-650/ton).

The company said that renewable products’ sales prices have been negatively affected by a substantial decrease in diesel price during the third quarter.

However, waste and residue feedstock prices have not decreased and renewable product market price premiums have remained weak.

Neste also revised its renewable products’ total sales volume and SAF sales volume forecasts based on its latest sales outlook. The Finnish refiner, which producers SAF at its Finland and Singapore refineries, said it will optimise its production capacity utilisation in renewable products according to the market situation.

Neste reported higher SAF sales in the second quarter of 2024 at 65,000 tonnes, higher than 41,000 tonnes in 1Q of 2024 and 40,000 tonnes of 2Q 2023. Overall, during the six months, Neste sold 105,000 tonnes of SAF compared to 63,000 tonnes in the first half of 2023.