$45bn investment required to meet SAF demand: WEF

Nearly $45bn investment is required to meet sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) demand by 2030, according to a study carried out by the World Economic Forum (WEF) and management consulting firm Kearney.

The study found that meeting SAF demand would require 5.8m tons of additional production capacity. To meet this, the total capex needed to meet SAF demand is estimated to be between $19bn and $45bn, depending on the technology mix, according to the study, which is part of the WEF’s Airports of Tomorrow initiative.

The report estimates global SAF demand to reach 17m tons per year by 2030, representing about 5% of total jet fuel consumption.

At the end of 2024, production capacity reached 4.4m tons per year, but total capacity is expected to expand by another 6.9m tons per year based on confirmed facility expansions and new refineries opening.

The research also revealed that reaching the anticipated level of demand in 2030 will require an additional 5.8m tons of production capacity to secure financial investment decisions by 2026.

“Banks will often view SAF projects as high risk due to their novelty, extended timelines, and reliance on emerging technologies. Project developers must bear this in mind when attempting to attract capital. For SAF to reach scalable production, a shift in financing mechanisms will be necessary, leveraging both private and public capital to mitigate the perceived risks and catalyse a substantial cash flow into the sector,” said WEF aviation decarbonisation lead Giorgio Parolini.

The research said that new greenfield SAF refineries will be essential if the industry expects to meet its 2030 climate goals. The combination of collaboration structures and financing models do not work in isolation.

To effectively scale up SAF, project developers will need to explore as many avenues as possible.

“If we are serious about hitting SAF targets by 2030, SAF producers, governments, and investors will need to work together to de-risk production and scale employment,” Kearney’s Global sustainability director Claudia Galea said.

“There are a number of financing roadblocks for SAF to scale up effectively. Addressing these barriers will require a multifaceted approach with technological innovation, policy frameworks, and innovative financial structures to enhance the investment appeal for SAF projects across their life cycle.”