A week of comings and goings

opinion

by Oscar Henderson

November 6, 2026

Some news stories break international boundaries. The big news this week is Portuguese footballing legend, Cristiano Ronaldo, announced his retirement from international football (or soccer to some of you). He retires after scoring 146 international goals, the most in history.

The eagle-eyed have noticed the US midterm elections also took place. These selected the members for the House of Representatives and the Senate, which together make up the US Congress. These bodies are responsible for creating and passing federal laws. This might be more consequential for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

The Democrats managed to win a majority in both houses of Congress in a potential check to President Trump’s administration’s authority. The question is what this means for SAF?

Before the midterms The Farm Bill was being negotiated for reauthorisation by Congress. Folded within it is the Farm to Fly Act, which set out to include SAF as an advanced biofuel, allowing fuel producers and feedstock processors access to US Department of Agriculture programmes.

Congress still has a lame duck session before the new members are sworn in in January, and the Farm Bill could move in that window. If it doesn’t, it dies with this Congress. All bills currently under consideration need to be re-submitted and go back to committee. From 2027, the Democrats control which bills come back to committee.

“The Farm Bill could still move in the lame duck session, or it may not. Senate Democrats voted against it in committee because of some key provisions they didn’t like, so if it doesn’t pass in the lame duck, the bill in its current form is dead,” Dani Charles, co-founder, Veriflux, tells SAF Investor. “That doesn’t mean everything in it is dead. There are pieces Democrats support and those will likely show up again in future bills.”

The Farm to Fly Act itself has bipartisan support, with Republican and Democratic sponsors in both the House and Senate, even though the Farm Bill as a whole does not.

“Biofuel policy has had bipartisan support for a long time, and I don’t see that changing with this Congress,” says Charles. “What changes is the path. How and when that policy gets passed may look different given the new dynamics, but that’s always been the case.”

One aspect that will likely survive the restructuring is the 45Z production tax credit.

“45Z credit support is bipartisan and the proposal to reinstate $1.75/gal until 2033 helps everyone: farmers, blenders, producers. Whoever’s in charge, project economics hinge on that credit,” says Charlie Little, senior associate – Fuels and Molecules, Currence.

Crucially for the future of the Farm Bill, Democrats won Senate races in key farming states, including Kansas, Iowa and Ohio. Charles expects Democrats elected in farm states to support farm and biofuel measures, as incumbent Democrats from farm states like Minnesota already do. That gives provisions with broad support a chance to be added to an omnibus or another bill as an amendment.

Current government funding runs out on December 11th, 2026. Before then, the outgoing Congress can either pass full-year funding for fiscal 2027 or pass another stopgap into early 2027, which would leave the rest of this year’s spending to the new, Democrat-controlled, Congress. That Congress will also write the fiscal 2028 spending bills, starting with the President’s budget request due in February and running to the September 30th, 2027 deadline. Each of those spending bills is a possible vehicle for Farm Bill provisions.

“When they go to pass a budget bill, there will be senators who say: ‘I’m not going to vote in favour of this unless you add this or that’. And this or that could very well be biofuels related provisions,” says Charles. “So senators can go back to their constituents and say: ‘Look what we did for you.’ That’s how components of the Farm Bill may still get passed, even if it’s less likely a standalone bill ever does.”

Whether any of it gets done is still up in the air. A lot is still unknown and it will depend on how things shake out with the new Congress.

These midterm elections do not create an opportunity for large-scale policy upheaval. The president’s veto will hold, as overriding it takes a two thirds majority in both houses of Congress, which the Democrats will not have on their own. In practice, only bipartisan legislation becomes law. So don’t expect a sweeping return to the Inflation Reduction Act from the Biden administration.

“For the next two years, anything Congress wants signed into law either needs agreement with the president or enough Republican support to override a veto. Either way, the only legislation that gets passed and signed is bipartisan legislation,” says Charles.

Charles tells us that something to watch that could be a boon for the SAF and biofuels industry is the ‘Set Three’ rule. This sets the Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2028 and beyond under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). It is due to be finalised during 2027.

“In March 2026, the administration finalised the Set Two rule, which covers 2026 and 2027. The next one is going to cover 2028 and 2029 and potentially 2030,” Charles tells us. “If oil prices are coming down and there’s less of a perception that higher RIN [Renewable Identification Number] prices will contribute to inflation, I think the president will be more inclined to put out a blowout number for Set Three that really helps farmers. I think it probably leads to record RVOs for 2028, 2029 and possibly 2030.”

Senate seats in Kansas, Iowa, North Dakota and South Dakota, all states with large farming constituencies that benefit from strong RVOs, are up for election in 2028. This is also the year of the next presidential election.

Despite sweeping Democrat victories, large-scale policy change will still need support from both sides of the aisle. For biofuels, that has rarely been the obstacle. It is going to be a question of priorities.

Meanwhile, we will focus on the real big news story and celebrate Cristiano Ronaldo’s career and his contribution to making Portuguese football great again. Time to watch his highlight reel again I think.