Europe’s SAF market risks creating new dependence on China: NorSAF

opinion

by Fayaz Hussain

October 16, 2026

Under EU rules, the share of SAF supplied at EU airports must rise from 2% in 2025 to 6%.

NorSAF is leading calls for Europe to make domestic advanced SAF projects investable, warning that the continent risks replacing dependence on imported fossil fuels with reliance on imported feedstocks.

Europe risks creating a new strategic dependence on China and other overseas feedstock suppliers as it scales up sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates, unless policymakers make domestic production and locally sourced feedstocks more investable, NorSAF, a Latvian developer building the Baltics’ largest SAF project, has warned.

The warning comes as the European Union accelerates its SAF mandate while more than 50 advanced SAF projects across Europe remain unable to reach final investment decision (FID), the point at which investors commit the capital needed to build them.

Under EU rules, the share of SAF supplied at EU airports must rise from 2% in 2025 to 6% (of which 1.2% of eSAF is introduced) in 2030 and 20% (of which 5% eSAF) by 2035.

But meeting those targets will require more than increasing consumption. Europe must also build the production capacity and feedstock supply chains needed to reduce reliance on imports, strengthen domestic industry and help bring down the long-term cost of decarbonising aviation.

Much of today’s European-produced SAF is made using HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids), the most established production pathway. But HEFA relies heavily on feedstocks such as used cooking oil, creating a dependence on globally traded supplies. EASA data shows that around 85% of the feedstocks used for SAF supplied at EU airports in 2025 came from outside the EU, with China accounting for 61% of imported feedstocks.

As demand for used cooking oil and other HEFA feedstocks increases globally, Europe risks competing with other emerging SAF markets for a finite supply. Advanced SAF pathways offer a way to diversify production by using agricultural and forestry residues and other non-food feedstocks that can be sourced closer to production plants.

Europe should not only increase SAF consumption, but also build more of the feedstock, production capacity and economic value within the region. Advanced SAF technologies can help achieve this while reducing the long-term cost of decarbonising aviation. Unless production can be scaled and costs brought down, the transition risks making air travel more expensive for ordinary passengers.

SAF production must also avoid competing with food and feed production. Food and feed crop-based feedstocks are not eligible under ReFuelEU Aviation, while the availability of sustainable waste oils and fats in Europe is limited. This further highlights the need to diversify production pathways and accelerate the deployment of advanced SAF technologies that can utilise locally available, sustainable non-food feedstocks.

The gap between mandated demand and investment is becoming increasingly important as the EU prepares to review its SAF framework. Without greater certainty around future demand, pricing and the duration of support, projects capable of diversifying Europe’s feedstock base risk remaining on the drawing board.

Janis Kisiels, founder and board member of NorSAF, says: “China is already building out its domestic SAF industry, with 10 SAF plants operational, and is increasingly looking to use its own feedstocks to produce SAF at home. The day may come when China no longer exports the used cooking oil Europe relies on but instead sells us the finished SAF. We cannot simply replace one dependency with another. Europe needs to at least triple its domestic SAF and eSAF production in the coming years, using feedstocks and energy resources available within Europe. But that will only happen if projects can attract investment.”

More than 50 SAF-related projects across the EU are awaiting final investment decision (FID). The ReFuelEU Aviation review must give financial partners confidence about how much SAF Europe will need, the economics of that market and how long that demand will be supported.

An example solution could be the introduction of a grant or similar financial support scheme specifically designed to help companies reach FID, getting through this development phase is often known as the ‘valley of death’ and the main reason many large-scale, complex and funding-intensive industrial projects fail to progress.

The comments were made at an industry roundtable hosted by the Permanent Representation of Latvia to the European Union in Brussels. The closed discussion brought together SAF and eSAF industry representatives, European Commission officials, policymakers and industry associations to discuss feedstock availability, energy security and the investment framework needed to develop European production capacity. Attendees included representatives from Nova Pangaea Technologies, KBR, TEREOS, the European Commission, the European Parliament, Bioenergy Europe and ePure, alongside Latvian and other European government and industry representatives.

Jonathan Wood, CCO of Nova Pangaea Technologies, agreed that Europe needed to look beyond the most established SAF pathway.

“Not all SAF is created equal. HEFA is today the lowest cost and most established pathway because used cooking oil as a feedstock is relatively simple to convert into fuel; however, as capacity scales up so the availability of used vegetable oils will become more constrained. That’s why we need to develop and scale up production technologies to convert biomass wastes and residues into liquid fuels – these feedstocks are relatively lower cost and widely available – in contrast used cooking oil is predominantly sourced from Asia and has limited supply,” he said.

“Policymakers should set regulations based on the greenhouse gas emission reduction achieved versus fossil fuel, not just the amount of SAF supplied, because the level of emission reduction varies by feedstock and SAF production process used. Nova Pangaea’s REFNOVA technology produces a co-product biochar, which is a form of permanent carbon removal and makes the whole process carbon negative – the advanced SAF made from it delivers more than twice the emission reduction compared with other SAF production processes.”

NorSAF and Nova Pangaea Technologies recently signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to explore the development of an advanced bioethanol production plant in Latvia. The proposed plant will supply bioethanol to NorSAF’s planned SAF and eSAF facility, with the potential to export bioethanol to other European advanced SAF producers as well. The partnership aims to unlock the potential of Europe’s waste biomass resources, strengthen EU-based feedstock supply chains and retain more economic value within Europe.

The investment challenge extends beyond SAF to renewable hydrogen, e-fuels and other emerging low-carbon fuels. Without regulatory certainty when capital is committed, Europe risks replacing dependence on imported fossil fuels with dependence on imported low-carbon fuels, feedstocks and technologies.

Thor Magnus Rovik, CEO of Northern Europe Energy Group AS and the CIS Liepāja hydrogen plant, said that reducing production costs would also be critical to building a competitive European SAF industry.

“This project is of regional importance, and a key priority for us is reducing the cost of green hydrogen production to ensure the project comes into production in time. If Europe is to build a SAF industry that can compete globally with fossil-based jet fuel, we need to reduce the cost of SAF production. Scale and continued investment in production efficiency will be critical,” Rovik said.

NorSAF currently operates a liquid oil and chemical product storage and transshipment terminal in the Liepāja Special Economic Zone (LSEZ) and is developing a SAF and eSAF production facility at the Port of Liepāja using KBR’s PureSAF® technology, originally invented and developed by Swedish Biofuels.

Production is currently expected to begin in 2031. The world’s largest Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance and Insurance (ACMI) provider Avia Solutions Group is acting as a partner on the project. NorSAF will benefit from access to the Group’s aviation infrastructure, including its subsidiary Baltic Ground Services.